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Production

Model makers, wood

Typically requires High school diploma or equivalent

What is this page & how do I use it?

This is a research report for one career — the kind an analyst would write for a stock. The rating at the top is the neutral baseline (same for everyone); below it come the cases for and against, how the last official forecast for this career actually aged, and what the education path costs and pays.

How to use it: read the bulls-vs-bears case, then hit Score this career to weigh it against your other options with your own interests factored in.

CareerStar rating
RiskyLow uncertainty

Analyst take: Softer prospects — -4.5% projected growth, low AI exposure (15/100).

30
/ 100
low riskhigh
top row = high reward

Moat (borrowed from investing — the water that defends a castle): how shielded this career is from AI. Narrow = some shelter, but AI can reach a real share of its tasks.

The small grid is a style box (borrowed from Morningstar’s fund reports): the blue square places this career on reward (top row = high) versus risk (left column = low), against all 730 careers. Low uncertainty means the score leans mostly on measured data (growth, pay) rather than forward-looking bets, so it's comparatively solid.

🐂 Bulls say
  • +Low AI exposure — resilient (15% of tasks exposed).
🐻 Bears say
  • Projected to shrink (-4.5%).
  • Below-median pay ($51,850).
📜 Reality check — how the last forecast for this career fared

In 2014, the U.S. government projected +0% growth for this career by 2024. What actually happened: -65.4%. Reality fell short of the forecast — a reminder that every number on this page is an estimate, and this is how the last one aged. Full back-test →

Was this rating fair?
Projected growth
-4.5%
Median pay
$51,850
AI exposure
15/100
share of tasks exposed to AI — not job loss

Education & ROI — how to get here

Real outcomes for the college majors that feed this occupation, across 5 bachelor’s programs.

Median earnings
$22,714
1 year after graduating
Typical debt
$26,912
median federal debt
Pay-to-debt
0.8×
first-year pay ÷ debt
Feeder majors
Woodworking
Selective schools offering these majors
Rhode Island School of Design
RI · 19% admit rate
$81,727/yr
$68,140 grad pay
Minneapolis College of Art and Design
MN · 48% admit rate
$59,972/yr
$40,873 grad pay
Rochester Institute of Technology
NY · 67% admit rate
$74,626/yr
$76,571 grad pay
SUNY Buffalo State University
NY · 73% admit rate
$24,279/yr
$52,334 grad pay
California College of the Arts
CA · 91% admit rate
$79,776/yr
$49,414 grad pay

Earnings & debt from the U.S. Dept. of Education College Scorecard; majors mapped to this occupation via the NCES CIP→SOC crosswalk. A grounded ROI snapshot, not a guarantee — pay varies widely by school and specialty.

What this work involves

productionmanufacturinghands-on